The Statistical Argument: Jokić Wins on Every Advanced Metric

By virtually every advanced statistical measure, Nikola Jokić had the greatest individual season in NBA history. His Box Plus/Minus of 13.1 is the highest ever recorded. His RAPTOR metric (a catch-all advanced stat developed by FiveThirtyEight) shows Jokić as the most valuable player in basketball by an enormous margin. His 34 triple-doubles were 14 more than any other player in the league.

The Narrative Argument: SGA's Back-to-Back Window

SGA averaged 32.7 points per game — the most by any player since James Harden in 2018-19. He was the most important player on the defending champion Thunder, and his consistency was remarkable: he scored 30+ points in 41 games. The pro-SGA argument hinges on the idea that a scorer who puts up transcendent numbers while leading his team to a 56-win season deserves recognition beyond what the box score shows.

Our prediction: Jokić wins his 4th MVP. The advanced stats are too overwhelming to ignore, and voters have increasingly trusted metrics over narratives. However, this is the closest MVP race since the 2021-22 season where Jokić beat Embiid.